arshad5

What is the economic outlook for Pakistan over the next few years?

It has a lot of potential although it does face some serious problems in the future.

What are the sectors to invest in?

ehtasab

Pakistan's biggest hurdles in progress are political stability and lack of institutions.

Pakistan's potential in investments are many, including education & training sector, security, energy and water IMO.

SindSagar

ehtasab

Real estate is almost always "safe" investment but sometimes it is hard to get out of it as well as prices are already gone so high unless you speculate that prices will go even further.

arshad5

I cannot really see the real estate sector doing too well over the short term in Pakistan but long-term you cannot go wrong with real estate in any country.

The problem with Pakistan is that it not competitive in the global market. It consumes a lot more than it produces and the country is running on a deficit. Deficit leads to inflationary pressures. Inflation robs people of their money as it loses it's value.

SindSagar

Undeveloped raw land is still less than $1000/- per acre in rural areas !

arshad5

It does not matter what the price is in isolation. Does the property in question have road access and good transport links?. What can I use the land for, how much will it cost me and how much can I get out of the land?

Its not a really a matter of paying more or less but what is better value. Paying more can be better investment.

ehsan

Currently there are too many negatives around for the outlook to be rosy. Political instability, rampant inflation, deteriorating law and order situation and the new government's inability to start addressing the critical issues facing the country.

arshad5

If you are a contrarian investor then you could take a view that the outlook is positive in the long-run supported by fundamentals. So the best time to invest would be now, when the market sentiment is negative.

X2

any ideas on what happened to lebanon real estate prices in the 80s? and also afghanistan real estate prices.

ehsan

‘Global economic slowdown adversely impacting growth’
* SBP chief says rising fuel prices have increased pressure on fiscal accounts

Staff Report

KARACHI: International financial market turmoil, starting in the US, has now caused a global economic slowdown, which in turn is adversely impacting the growth prospects of Pakistan also, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Dr Shamshad Akhtar said on Saturday.

Dr Akhtar told President Pervez Musharraf that Pakistan, like other countries, is facing economic stress and challenging policy scenarios.

In her presentation, the SBP governor covered the areas of economic growth, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal and external imbalances, exchange rate and macroeconomic stability.

Rising fuel prices: She said the rising international fuel and commodity prices have considerably increased the pressures on balance of payments, fiscal accounts and inflation outlook. This is not only true for Pakistan but also for most of the emerging and developed economies, she added.

Dr Akhtar explained that high inflation is economically and socially costly. It adversely affects investment and growth, creates uncertainty, and erodes peoples’ purchasing power, particularly that of the low-income groups.

In this context, the governor highlighted that Pakistan as well as a number of developing and developed countries are pursuing a tight monetary policy to contain inflation and to mitigate its adverse impacts for long-term growth prospects.

Referring to the key policy actions for restoring macroeconomic stability and sustaining growth, the Dr Akhtar stressed that the monetary tightening is essential to reduce demand pressures, which is to be supplemented by fiscal tightening. Besides the need for adherence to fiscal targets for the fiscal year 2008-09, as enumerated in the budget, the revenue deficit should be converted into a surplus in coming years. The governor added that the key concerns of the SBP are the high stress of government borrowings and a drain on foreign exchange reserves due to the confluence of domestic and international developments highlighted above. Dr Akhtar complimented the government for its decision to reduce the borrowings from SBP to net zero.


Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

arshad5

I don't know...perhaps due to war they went down but I bet they are higher now than in the 80's.

raza110

One strategic report (prepared for US Defense department) foresees Pakistan will essentially fall into Taliban's Hand by 2015. If the report has even 50% credibility then Outlook definitely is not good regardless short terms or long.

Coincidently, republican nominee John Mccain has also predicted that by 2015, America will win the war. Interesting Isn't it ? that both events has the same year.

arshad5

Don't believe everything that you hear or read, Pakistan is here to stay!

raza110

Arshad, I have to disagree with your suggestion: not to believe. I wish I could, but I simply can't. Because it wont change any thing on ground reality.

It is not that I am endorsing any report. But I am, like many people, aware that many facts and figures in the report are true. Surprisingly, after coming out this report, within 4 months, Benazir Butto was assassinated.

Off course I know it is not going to happen in 2015. But..... if anyone is denying the fact that Pakistan is closer than ever to be a failed state, then he is just too wishful to accept the reality.

arshad5

If Pakistan ever becomes a failed state then it would be 10 times more dangerous than Afghanistan. Nobody in their right mind would want Pakistan to become a failed state. The U.S has recently been making some interesting noises about proping up the Pakistani economy. So long as the country progresses economically and builds institutions as opposed to the being run on the whims of some people than you need not worry about it becoming a failed state.