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    1. #1
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      For no good reason but wondered what pple thought the ground realities are in PK politics? What would NA assembly look like in 2013?

      PML- N = They will be disappointed if they got less than 100 NA seats I guess.

      PPP = 40-50 from Sindh and Balochistan mainly

      PTI = Would be disappointed if they get below 20 but great achievement if they get 50+

      MQM = I think will be static around 20-25

      PML-Q = Don't think there will be much left of this party as they will join PMLN or PTI, but they won't get more than 10-15 I guess.

      ANP = don't see a bright future for them to be honest.

      Islamic parties = not sure really

      So I think its gonna be one of the most open parliament ever in PK!! What u guys think?

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      PPP will sure get more seats than PML-N . The real competition will be between PTI and PML-N .
      -- Nauman --

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      PPP will get seats mainly from sindh, south Punjab would be interesting. As far as balochistan is concerned if the nationalists participate PPP will not get more than 2-3 seats there. Pti's performance in KP would be interesting to watch, in central Punjab it would be mainly pti versus pmln (pmln might emerge biggest party there) and in south Punjab it would be an interesting three way contest between ppp, pmln and pti. Sindh ppp and mqm mainly.

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      PTI AND PMLN competition in punjab will be a treat to watch

      I think there would be a PMLN and PPP re-engagement before the elections.
      who knows, we might have the same coalition government again!

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      Quote Originally Posted by Insaf View Post
      For no good reason but wondered what pple thought the ground realities are in PK politics? What would NA assembly look like in 2013?

      PML- N = They will be disappointed if they got less than 100 NA seats I guess.

      PPP = 40-50 from Sindh and Balochistan mainly

      PTI = Would be disappointed if they get below 20 but great achievement if they get 50+

      MQM = I think will be static around 20-25

      PML-Q = Don't think there will be much left of this party as they will join PMLN or PTI, but they won't get more than 10-15 I guess.

      ANP = don't see a bright future for them to be honest.

      Islamic parties = not sure really

      So I think its gonna be one of the most open parliament ever in PK!! What u guys think?
      PML-Q is already in bed with PPP. Q has realized (or made to realize by NICL) just like MQM that 'mauj hae darya maen beroun-e-darya kutchh nahin'.
      PTI will dent the PML-N vote bank mostly since PPP vote bank remains stable despite all corruption and bad governance.
      so In my opinon PPP will be gainer again in these elections..
      hard to swallow but thats wat it looks like.
      J for Jiala...J for Jaahil..
      Jaahil a hard-headed idiot who would never admit his mistake.

    6. #6
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      Quote Originally Posted by rangoli View Post
      PTI AND PMLN competition in punjab will be a treat to watch

      I think there would be a PMLN and PPP re-engagement before the elections.
      who knows, we might have the same coalition government again!
      Contrary to that, signs are that there is already an understanding between PTI and PPP, the recent by-election of Multan can be quoted as an example of such understanding... PTI and PPP will be having seat adjustment in Central and Northern Punjab and they would be together contesting against PML-N, where on surface the candidate will be from PTI but would be supported and backed by PPP and vice verse in Southern Punjab, Makhdoom Javed Hashimi, Mehmood ur Rasheed and few others are in favor of such understanding.... but Shah Mehmood and Jahangeer Tareen kind of people are against such collation.. the final word is not out yet but such understanding would certainly dent PML-N big time in Punjab!!!

      On top of this, to damage PML-N further, Fazl ur Rehman on instructions of Zardari has already started his campaign to revive MMA... if this happens then PML-N would be out of the game unless the voters understand what is going on and they reject such thing... there is little chance for PML-N!!!

      In Sindh, things would be almost the same, MQM would contest elections on their own, strictly speaking they don't need any electoral alliances, atmost they can loose two or three seats but that would be worst case scenario.... here MQM might join hands with PTI to play them against Pakhtoon vote bank, i.e. denting ANP's vote back in Karachi, this might enable PTI to win a seat or two from Karachi as well... all in all, PPP would be the major winner in the Sindh both in provincial and federal level...

      In Balochistan, it is again depend on what would be army thinking about it, if nationalist parties decides to take part in election then they will sure throw PPP and PML-Q out of the game!!!

      KPK would be most interesting to watch, with JUI-F and JI may be making an alliance ( if fails to revive MMA) would secure some good seats from the province, with Ameer Muqam on PML-N's side, PML-N have fair chance here... but lot would be depending on the ANP, whom side they are going to be in this elections!!! no matter they look weak performance wise but the attitude of voters in KPK normally do not look for such things, had it based on the performance, JUI-F might have been out of electoral politics long time ago!!!



      Now the most interesting part will come after the elections as it will be a hung parliament again and making of Govt and opposition would be interesting game!!! that is where most will be exposed, like PTI have shown their hatred towards PML-N and have shown kind of anger towards PPP but whom would they be joining??? would they be part of govt or opposition, that is some thing the higher circle of PTI cannot agree on that is why IK continous with the mantra that they will clean sweep elections, just to avoid this question from press and public!!!
      GO Pak- Army, we are with you, crush the terrorists and their sympathizers for good..

    7. #7
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      ^^^

      I don't think PTI can afford an understanding with PPP specially in Punjab. They will give all the initiative of opposing the PPP government to PMLN.. It will be suicidal for PTI and a dream scenario for PMLN.. at present there is a very strong anti PPP wave in Punjab..

      Secondly people who argue on the basis of by-elections are simply naive. Voters know perfectly their vote will not change the government in by-elections therefore they tend to vote for people who can make some petty developments their constituency. During the general election the voters will ask themselves before voting if they need to repeat the same past 5 years.. and I am afraid no sane person would like to have the same government for next five years specially in Punjab..

      I foresee MQM also parting ways with PPP to consolidate their vote bank any time before the elections otherwise they will also face a big electoral damage if they decide to remain in coalition and contest the election. I think they will use budget as a pretext to part ways from the government. PMLQ is likely to the only party to make seat re adjustment with PPP in coming elections..

      Election politics will be very different from post election politics.. I think we are heading for another hung parliament after these elections.. Mr. Zardari is actually better off in playing power politics than everyone else.. If only he can retain 50/60 seats... which in present scenario seems an uphill task..

    8. #8
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      Quote Originally Posted by hanibal View Post
      Contrary to that, signs are that there is already an understanding between PTI and PPP, the recent by-election of Multan can be quoted as an example of such understanding... PTI and PPP will be having seat adjustment in Central and Northern Punjab and they would be together contesting against PML-N, where on surface the candidate will be from PTI but would be supported and backed by PPP and vice verse in Southern Punjab, Makhdoom Javed Hashimi, Mehmood ur Rasheed and few others are in favor of such understanding.... but Shah Mehmood and Jahangeer Tareen kind of people are against such collation.. the final word is not out yet but such understanding would certainly dent PML-N big time in Punjab!!!

      On top of this, to damage PML-N further, Fazl ur Rehman on instructions of Zardari has already started his campaign to revive MMA... if this happens then PML-N would be out of the game unless the voters understand what is going on and they reject such thing... there is little chance for PML-N!!!

      In Sindh, things would be almost the same, MQM would contest elections on their own, strictly speaking they don't need any electoral alliances, atmost they can loose two or three seats but that would be worst case scenario.... here MQM might join hands with PTI to play them against Pakhtoon vote bank, i.e. denting ANP's vote back in Karachi, this might enable PTI to win a seat or two from Karachi as well... all in all, PPP would be the major winner in the Sindh both in provincial and federal level...

      In Balochistan, it is again depend on what would be army thinking about it, if nationalist parties decides to take part in election then they will sure throw PPP and PML-Q out of the game!!!

      KPK would be most interesting to watch, with JUI-F and JI may be making an alliance ( if fails to revive MMA) would secure some good seats from the province, with Ameer Muqam on PML-N's side, PML-N have fair chance here... but lot would be depending on the ANP, whom side they are going to be in this elections!!! no matter they look weak performance wise but the attitude of voters in KPK normally do not look for such things, had it based on the performance, JUI-F might have been out of electoral politics long time ago!!!



      Now the most interesting part will come after the elections as it will be a hung parliament again and making of Govt and opposition would be interesting game!!! that is where most will be exposed, like PTI have shown their hatred towards PML-N and have shown kind of anger towards PPP but whom would they be joining??? would they be part of govt or opposition, that is some thing the higher circle of PTI cannot agree on that is why IK continous with the mantra that they will clean sweep elections, just to avoid this question from press and public!!!
      MMA has the capacity to damage PTI in KP as well. Other than that it would Pretty much be a hung parliament.

    9. #9
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      Quote Originally Posted by hanibal View Post
      KPK would be most interesting to watch, with JUI-F and JI may be making an alliance ( if fails to revive MMA) would secure some good seats from the province, with Ameer Muqam on PML-N's side, PML-N have fair chance here... but lot would be depending on the ANP, whom side they are going to be in this elections!!! no matter they look weak performance wise but the attitude of voters in KPK normally do not look for such things, had it based on the performance, JUI-F might have been out of electoral politics long time ago!!!
      JUI have done quite a bit of development work for the province as compared to current and past parties. They did fare badly in the last campaign but they do have strong holds. I doubt there vote would increase.

      Actually people of KP have voted in various parties and always strived for change and i assume it is because of failures of the government.

    10. #10
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      Quote Originally Posted by yazdi View Post
      ^^^

      I don't think PTI can afford an understanding with PPP specially in Punjab. They will give all the initiative of opposing the PPP government to PMLN.. It will be suicidal for PTI and a dream scenario for PMLN.. at present there is a very strong anti PPP wave in Punjab..
      That is exactly what SMQ group of PTI believes, i agree with them on this, on the other hand, there is other group who also have some strong points for such understanding, remember no one in PT is pushing for alliance or seat adjustment thing with PPP, it would be just an understanding and would be on those seats where PPP is weak and knows cannot defeat PML-N that is where this understanding will become handy!!! and i agree with logic of this group as well, they are right when they say that in order to defeat PML-N out of Punjab we need to be flexible as taking both PPP and PML-N heads on is not going to be beneficial at all!!!


      Quote Originally Posted by yazdi View Post
      Secondly people who argue on the basis of by-elections are simply naive. Voters know perfectly their vote will not change the government in by-elections therefore they tend to vote for people who can make some development their constituency. During the general election the voters will ask themselves before voting if they need to repeat the same past 5 years.. and I am afraid no sane person would like to have the same government for next five years specially in Punjab..
      not that i saying that the election result is there to draw the winning or loosing trend, it is the understanding between the PPP and PTI, specially between Javed Hashmi and PPP to defeat PML-N in of the seats they have never lost in last 20 years or so, the interesting part is, the PML-N candidate was none other but the nephew of Shah Mehmood Qureshi....

      Quote Originally Posted by yazdi View Post
      I foresee MQM also parting ways with PPP to consolidate their vote bank any time before the elections otherwise they will also face a big electoral damage if they decide to remain in coalition and contest the election. I think they will use budget as a pretext to part ways from the government. PMLQ is likely to the only party to make seat re adjustment with PPP in coming elections..
      MQM have already started their campaign, have you seen their Shadow Budget thing, i mean if i am part of the govt or ally of the govt, i would rather give my suggestions for the budget to the govt and would use all the pressure i can to force govt to implement those in the budget, but what we got is, MQM came out with the Shadow Budget and that is it... anyways, i agree, not only MQM but i thing ANP will also part their ways from PPP.... PML-Q have bitter experience of 2008 when they stayed with MUSHY and lost big time and that is why they already saying that they may leave the govt on the power-cut issue!~!

      Quote Originally Posted by yazdi View Post
      Election politics will be very different from post election politics.. I think we are heading for another hung parliament after these elections.. Mr. Zardari is actually better off in playing power politics than everyone else.. If only he can retain 50/60 seats... which in present scenario seems an uphill task..
      I think zardari will manage to hold these many seats!!! Sind is very much with him and it is mainly the anti-ppp forces which are joining PML-N so far, no big dent for PPP in Sindh, remember, Karachi was never their strong hold and that is why they could afford to mess the city up...
      And yes you are right!!! Zardari would be in very much interesting position, let see, how would he plays if he gets 50 or 60 seats which i think is not that difficult for him...
      GO Pak- Army, we are with you, crush the terrorists and their sympathizers for good..

    11. #11
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      Quote Originally Posted by Ali_Syed View Post
      MMA has the capacity to damage PTI in KP as well.

      to me the revivial of MMA would be depending on how Military establishment in looking forward to the upcoming elections!!! remember MMA is nothing but Mulla Military Alliance and they have proved it with their work... anyway, if MMA revived i think there would be alliance between PTI and MMA in KPK, one of the major party of MMA, i.e. JI have already hinted alliance with PTI....

      but yes if such alliance doesn't happen, it can hurt PTI's chances in KPK
      GO Pak- Army, we are with you, crush the terrorists and their sympathizers for good..

    12. #12
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      Quote Originally Posted by Himalaya View Post
      JUI have done quite a bit of development work for the province as compared to current and past parties. They did fare badly in the last campaign but they do have strong holds. I doubt there vote would increase.

      Actually people of KP have voted in various parties and always strived for change and i assume it is because of failures of the government.
      JUI-F is mainly in the parts of KPK which is adjacent to the Balochistan's Pakhtroon area (Please correct me if i am wrong), these areas were considered strong hold of JUI and in last elections Fazl ur Rehman lost his seat because he was with the Govt till the last moment, this time he have played it smartly, he have left the govt and have been raising the issues related to his constituencies... and is actively working to revive MMA... so i think we would be able to hold 6 or 7 seats
      GO Pak- Army, we are with you, crush the terrorists and their sympathizers for good..

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      I think zardari will manage to hold these many seats!!! Sind is very much with him and it is mainly the anti-ppp forces which are joining PML-N so far, no big dent for PPP in Sindh, remember, Karachi was never their strong hold and that is why they could afford to mess the city up...
      And yes you are right!!! Zardari would be in very much interesting position, let see, how would he plays if he gets 50 or 60 seats which i think is not that difficult for him...
      When I say to win 50/60 seats will be an uphill task for PPP I consider following factors

      1) PPP is entirely banking on Seraiki province factor to win some seats in South Punjab.. elsewhere in Punjab they have practically given up hope. If Seraiki province becomes an issue in next election in South Punjab they may win some seats in South Punjab. Presently it is not much of an issue for people of the area.. although PPP is striving hard to make it an issue. No significant public mobilization is seen on the issue at present..

      2) I see some dent coming in Sindh on the number of seats for PPP because a lot of strong candidates/land lords who don't get PPP tickets are making alliances elsewhere and trying to start an anti Zardari campaign. This may take off.. or may not take off.. only time will tell. In any case to retain Sindh will not be like 2008 scenario for Zardari.. it will be an uphill task..

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      ^^ You have raised some valid points!
      Let see what Zardari do, the rumors are, Gillani is going to resign in next 30-40 days and a new PM is going to be from Sindh, now Gillani will be tasked to take care of Seraiki issue and province!!! i don't know how successful he would be in the presence of SMQ and other groups!!! but he can try and he would have support of Zardari!!!

      The new PM of Sindh would be there for damage control!!!


      Now i don't know if this will benefit Zardari/PPP...
      GO Pak- Army, we are with you, crush the terrorists and their sympathizers for good..

    15. #15
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      I would be disappointed if PTI doesnt defeat PML N in Punjab


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      Quote Originally Posted by waleedhbk View Post
      I would be disappointed if PTI doesnt defeat PML N in Punjab
      Hope Zardari and Malik Riaz will not let you to be disappointed .
      At least in Central Punjab .

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      Quote Originally Posted by waleedhbk View Post
      I would be disappointed if PTI doesnt defeat PML N in Punjab
      Although I would like to see PTi win from Punjab but the ground reality is:

      1) IRI is predicting more than 40% popularity for PMLN compared to 33% for PTI.. PPP is at distant 9% in Punjab.

      2) PTI is still not organized in electoral politics in Punjab.. With popularity more than PTI and much better organized in electoral politics.. PMLN on ground looks more likely to win in Punjab unless something drastic happens before election..

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      Quote Originally Posted by Anwer Pasha View Post
      Hope Zardari and Malik Riaz will not let you to be disappointed .
      At least in Central Punjab .
      I hope so

      Quote Originally Posted by yazdi View Post
      Although I would like to see PTi win from Punjab but the ground reality is:

      1) IRI is predicting more than 40% popularity for PMLN compared to 33% for PTI.. PPP is at distant 9% in Punjab.

      2) PTI is still not organized in electoral politics in Punjab.. With popularity more than PTI and much better organized in electoral politics.. PMLN on ground looks more likely to win in Punjab unless something drastic happens before election..

      I just want fair and square elections in Punjab and then no one can stop PTI from winning

      Insha Allah


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