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    1. #1
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      Here I am putting down data for Karachi and Hyderabad (following post) that consists of 24 out of Pakistan 272 electable constituencies. I would love to see similar data and assessments for remaining 248 constituencies that would be contested. All data taken from 'Pakistan election commission' official website.

      http://www.ecp.gov.pk/GE2008.aspx


      KARACHI 20 constituencies (NA 239 to NA 258):

      Total registered votes (20 constituencies of Karachi): 6653915
      Total valid vote casted (In Karachi 20 constituencies): 3036553

      Total votes to MQM: 2172858 (71.56 percent of total cast votes)
      Total votes to PPP: 766723 (25.25 percent of total cast votes)

      Total combined votes to Ind, JI, MMA, ANP, PMLQ, PMLN, etc: 96972
      (3.19 percent of total cast votes)

      Overall result of 20 seats:

      MQM: 17 seats
      PPP: 3 seats.

      Here are results of each Karachi constituency (I am posting votes obtained by any party that got more than few hundred votes in the constituency):

      NA239 – Karachi 1:
      Registered votes: 312401
      Valid votes casted: 110675

      1: PPP … 56840
      2: MQM … 24013
      3: PMLN … 12329
      4: MMA … 5869


      NA240 – Karachi 2:
      Registered votes: 279723
      Valid votes casted: 130737

      1: MQM … 67799
      2: PPP … 61017
      3: MMA … 1600


      NA241 – Karachi 3:
      Registered votes: 268582
      Valid votes casted: 145735

      1: MQM … 93617
      2: ANP … 36236
      3: PPP … 11544
      4: PMLN … 3510


      NA242 – Karachi 4:
      Registered votes: 296822
      Valid votes casted: 177030

      1: MQM … 147892
      2: PPP … 27294
      3: Ind … 1067


      NA243 – Karachi 5:
      Registered votes: 333290
      Valid votes casted: 192133

      1: MQM … 167764
      2: PPP … 22147
      3: PMLN … 1862


      NA244 – Karachi 6:
      Registered votes: 290891
      Valid votes casted: 185581

      1: MQM … 174044
      2: PPP … 9271
      3: MMA … 1518


      NA245 – Karachi 7:
      Registered votes: 344004
      Valid votes casted: 168328

      1: MQM … 149157
      2: PPP … 15392
      3: ANP … 301


      NA246 – Karachi 8:
      Registered votes: 310045
      Valid votes casted: 194278

      1: MQM … 186933
      2: PPP … 6741
      3: Ind … 604


      NA247 – Karachi 9:
      Registered votes: 303455
      Valid votes casted: 182714

      1: MQM … 168007
      2: PPP … 13963
      3: MMA … 484


      NA248 – Karachi 10:
      Registered votes: 351345
      Valid votes casted: 104565

      1: PPP … 84217
      2: Ind … 9651
      3: MQM … 6326


      NA249 – Karachi 11:
      Registered votes: 388099
      Valid votes casted: 180748

      1: MQM … 103846
      2: PPP … 73324
      3: MMA … 3352


      NA250 – Karachi 12:
      Registered votes: 344657
      Valid votes casted: 101731

      1: MQM … 52045
      2: PPP … 44412
      3: PMLN … 3480


      NA251 – Karachi 13:
      Registered votes: 337193
      Valid votes casted: 131024

      1: MQM … 83537
      2: PMLN … 22304
      3: PPP … 17823
      4: Ind … 6653


      NA252 – Karachi 14:
      Registered votes: 277553
      Valid votes casted: 115287

      1: MQM … 87280
      2: PPP … 25337
      3: MMA … 2237


      NA253 – Karachi 15:
      Registered votes: 398527
      Valid votes casted: 152843

      1: MQM … 96973
      2: PPP … 47101
      3: PMLN … 4160


      NA254 – Karachi 16:
      Registered votes: 309295
      Valid votes casted: 153502

      1: MQM … 132648
      2: PPP … 14302
      3: PMLN … 4965


      NA255 – Karachi 17:
      Registered votes: 331927
      Valid votes casted: 190638

      1: MQM … 157971
      2: PPP … 31389
      3: Ind … 689


      NA256 – Karachi 18:
      Registered votes: 371067
      Valid votes casted: 163868

      1: MQM … 123491
      2: PPP … 23829
      3: Ind … 13654


      NA257 – Karachi 19:
      Registered votes: 386376
      Valid votes casted: 185901

      1: MQM … 134498
      2: PPP … 46084
      3: PMLN … 4296


      NA258 – Karachi 20:

      Registered votes: 418663
      Valid votes casted: 169235

      1: PPP … 134696
      2: MQM … 15017
      3: Ind … 11505


      It seems in last General election, ANP knowing they could not win NA seats against MQM may have given votes to PPP. But regardless, there are constituencies where ANP contested election and got few votes.

      Even though change in side of Nabil Gabol (PPP) and Qadir Khan (ANP) to MQM could considerably boost MQM in next election, Taliban factor would also help MQM amongst Pakhtun voters as most would look towards MQM for protection knowing that ANP could not protect even their own party leaders, workers and offices in Karachi from Taliban in Pakhtun areas.

      Forgetting ground changes I mentioned above that could benefit MQM substantially, there are only 2 constituencies that can be classified vulnerable for winning party (in both constituencies, winning party is MQM). Two constituencies are:



      Vulnerable Constituencies:

      NA 240 and NA 250 (vulnerable constituencies):

      NA240 – Karachi 2:
      Registered votes: 279723
      Valid votes casted: 130737

      1: MQM … 67799
      2: PPP … 61017
      3: MMA … 1600

      MQM got 51.86 percent casted votes
      PPP got 46.67 percent casted votes

      It means, if there is swing of 2.6 percent votes from MQM to PPP and PPP do not lose any votes then PPP could win this seat. Though I doubt any change would happen.


      NA250 – Karachi 12:
      Registered votes: 344657
      Valid votes casted: 101731

      1: MQM … 52045
      2: PPP … 44412
      3: PMLN … 3480

      MQM got 51.16 percent casted votes
      PPP got 43.66 percent casted votes

      It means, if there is swing of 3.76 percent votes from MQM to PPP and PPP do not lose any votes then PPP could win this seat. There could be some drawback for MQM due to NA 250 recent changes in constituency delimitation, but that is speculative effect, as I doubt such changes could make much difference.

      For rest of the constituencies, in my opinion, vote swing needed is too large for MQM or PPP to lose seats (barring any abnormality and miraculous voting swings).
      Last edited by Sa1eem; Apr 1st, 2013 at 11:23 AM.

    2. #2
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      HYDERABAD 4 constituencies (NA 218 to NA 221):

      Total registered votes (4 constituencies of Hyderabad): 1300707
      Total valid vote casted (In Hyderabad 4 constituencies): 611203

      Total votes to MQM: 315178 (51.57 percent of total cast votes)
      Total votes to PPP: 181758 (29.74 percent of total cast votes)

      Total combined votes to Ind, JI, MMA, ANP, PMLQ, PMLN, etc: 114267 (18.69 percent of total cast votes)

      Overall result: 4 seats:
      MQM: 2 seats
      PPP: 2 seats

      Here are results of each constituency (I am posting votes obtained by any party that got more than few hundred votes in the constituencies):


      NA218 – Hyderabad 1:
      Registered votes: 264345
      Valid votes casted: 127049

      1: PPP … 97717
      2: PMLN … 26510
      3: MMA … 5869


      NA219 – Hyderabad 2:
      Registered votes: 352697
      Valid votes casted: 195883

      1: MQM … 168136
      2: PPP … 25343
      3: PMLN … 1706


      NA220 – Hyderabad 3:
      Registered votes: 364798
      Valid votes casted: 174781

      1: MQM … 147040
      2: PPP … 24108
      3: PMLN … 2215


      NA121 – Hyderabad 4:
      Registered votes: 318867
      Valid votes casted: 113490

      1: PPP … 84041
      2: PML(Q)… 26391
      3: MMA … 2189


      In my opinion, none of the Hyderabad seats are vulnerable for representing party (MQM and PPP) to lose or any other party to gain from here.

    3. #3
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      Lahore has 13 seats, NA 118 to NA 130.

      In the previous elections PMLN got 60 %, PPPP 25 % and PMLQ 12 % of all casted votes.

      NA 118 Lahore 1

      PMLN 55900
      PPPP 24712
      PMLQ 11075

      Registered Voters: 250,850
      Valid votes casted: 92862

      NA 119 Lahore 2

      PMLN - uncontested

      NA 120 Lahore 3

      PML N 65,946
      PPPP 24,380
      PML Q 4,270

      Registered Voters: 268,552
      Valid votes casted: 96,275

      NA 121 Lahore 4

      PMLN 72,227
      PPPP 27,934
      PMLQ 7,559

      Registered voters: 303,962
      Valid votes casted: 108,453

      NA 122 Lahore 5

      PMLN 79506
      PPPP 24963
      PMLQ 10657

      Registered voters: 331,381
      Valid votes casted: 116,359

      NA 123 Lahore 6

      PMLN 44146
      Ind 9192
      Ind 3257

      Registered voters: 288984
      Valid votes casted:

      NA 124 Lahore 7

      PMLN 71342
      PPPP 23412
      PMLQ 10881

      Registered voters: 275675
      Valid votes casted: 106458

      NA 125 Lahore 8

      PMLN 79506
      PPPP 24963
      PMLQ 10657

      Registered voters: 311540
      Valid votes casted: 110240

      NA 126 Lahore 9

      PMLN 69718
      PPPP 25056
      PMLQ 23657

      Registered voters: 360304
      Valid votes casted: 119684

      NA 127 Lahore 10

      PMLN 53602
      PPPP 21698
      PMLQ 13707

      Registered voters: 279080
      Valid votes casted: 93050

      NA 128 Lahore 11

      PMLN 65727
      PPPP 37608
      PMLQ 18252

      Registered voters: 275267
      Valid votes casted: 122617

      NA 129 Lahore 12

      PPPP 36604
      PMLN 29058
      PMLQ 25918

      Registered voters: 200935
      Valid votes casted: 93717

      NA 130 Lahore 13

      PPPP 44692
      PMLN 41041
      PMLQ 12613

      Registered voters: 226575
      Valid votes casted: 98851

      The seats to be watched in Lahore would be NA 118, 122, 126, 128, 129 and 130. A new factor that's present in these elections is PTI and no one knows what kind of impact they will make in the electoral politics of Lahore. NA 129 and 130 were very close in the previous elections and can tip anywhere. I do not see any role of PPP and PMLQ in Lahore in the coming elections, I suspect most of the supporters of these parties would be voting for PTI in the coming elections.
      Last edited by Ali_Syed; Mar 31st, 2013 at 11:43 PM.
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    4. #4
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    5. #5
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      ^ thanks


      pakistan.jpg
      Last edited by Ali_Syed; Apr 1st, 2013 at 03:38 AM.
      A generation which ignores history has no past and no future. Robert A. Heinlein

    6. #6
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      We should remember that 2008 elections sentiments were somewhat pro-Mush v/s anti-Mush also. PML(N) and PPP "cooperated" in several places to eat up PML(Q) votes. That factor is not there anymore.

    7. #7
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      ^ I think PMLQ and PPP's votes would go down in many places in the Punjab.
      A generation which ignores history has no past and no future. Robert A. Heinlein

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      Last edited by Ali_Syed; Apr 1st, 2013 at 07:22 AM.

    9. #9
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      Man these PMLN is winning from lahore with 40,000 votes :S


    10. #10
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      ^ it was a big victory for pmln but they lost the rural seats of Lahore.
      A generation which ignores history has no past and no future. Robert A. Heinlein

    11. #11
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      Insha Allah this time PTI will beat them by some margin in Lahore


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      A generation which ignores history has no past and no future. Robert A. Heinlein

    13. #13
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      Keep em coming guys. I will put them in chronolgical order once everything is here in this thread. Or in a separate one.
      The will of Allah will not take you where the Grace of Allah will not protect you.

    14. #14
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      Thanks kakaballi, this is quite useful.

      Pakistan Election 2013 Map
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    15. #15
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      Interesting the electoral map mentions Javed Hashmi contesting from NA 126.
      A generation which ignores history has no past and no future. Robert A. Heinlein

    16. #16
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      Saleem, interesting how you pointed out the MQM strongholds in Karachi and Hyderabad. They are expected to win those seats again. Lets have a look at MQM's 5 year performance shall we?

      Pakistan is suffering from STD (Sexually Transmitted DemoKursi) of PMLN, PPP, ANP, JUIF. The cure lies in the container - Anonymous Pistol

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      ^^^ Brother, do not worry. MQM got 20 NA seats in last election (25 after reserves are added up) and I believe this year they would get much more.

      Anyhow, in above post I did not pointed out stronghold of any political parties. I am from Karachi and I only posted 2008 election results from Karachi and Hyderabad. I did not exclude parts of Karachi and Hyderabad where PPP won the election, as the details I gave includes all constituencies from Karachi and Hyderabad. My results source is Pakistan election commission web site, so one cannot say that I am in any way bias. I left remaining constituencies for others.

      As for you talking about performance, it makes me laugh.

      Even though I believe MQM has a lot in performance to show to people they represent, that is unfortunately irrelevant in Pakistani politics, as it seems People in Pakistan do not look at performance, else they would have elected PML(Q) in last election and not PPP or PMLN.

      Just imagine, people elected PMLN in Punjab and PPP at most places in Pakistan. Though as far as performance is concerned, PMLN is the only party under whose rule Pakistan defaulted twice (in 1998 and 1999) and PMLN both previous periods in power were economically worse Pakistan has ever seen (even worse than PPP periods under BB).

      PMLN made one motorway, that is from Lahore to Islamabad and talks a lot about motorway as if he made all 4 motorways Pakistan has (3 out of those 4 made or started by Musharraf, and even the one PMLN made, Musharraf enlarged that. Well, 2 motorways were made and third got started by Musharraf … plus Musharraf made 100s of nicely constructed roads all over Pakistan, especially in Baluchistan). But them whatever PMLN do, they would get votes from north Punjab, as voters do not look at performance, rather, they see Bradari and what the person throw to them in bones.

      As for performance, I would not be surprised if Nawaz would claim that his grandfather wrote ‘Bang-e-dara’ and his father made Taj-Mahal at Agra to gift Shah-Jahan, and people who vote PMLN would believe him. Actually, if anyone would say that Iqbal wrote Bang-e-Dara and that Nawaz father was not even born at time when Taj-Mahal was made, these PMLN ignorant voters would argue full of enthusiasm defending whatever Nawaz claimed. This is how performance matters in Pakistan election.



      As for performance of MQM … why accept my words?

      Few days ago I saw a program on TV (ab-tak) and in that program ‘Jasmeen’ went to Qasimabad constituency in Hyderabad (where PPP represents both Provincial and National assembly and are winning there in every past elections). Qasimabad is a big city and representatives there got around 10 billion rupees from government in last five years to spend there on development, what PPP thug politicians steal instead of using it on development. Still:

      One could easily see from program that even main city road and roundabout was full of ‘Katchra’ (garbage) and road can be seen filled with smelly gutter water, Local hospitals had no facilities neither schools in area had any facilities or were working properly … smell was all around (as told by Jasmeen) and then one resident (I believe, Sindhi speaking Sindhi of the area) in interview said that no work has ever got done in the area ever … then he said that ‘look at Latifabad (MQM constituency) that is now just like 'Europe' and look here’. In program, one person showed poster with pictures of BB, Zardari, winner of constituency, etc and pointed out at face of the representative of constituency that was full of dark patches put by voters, showing their hate towards the person.

      So, you can see that MQM do work where they get elected (and their opponents on ground also accept that), but regardless of work by MQM, in Pakistan full of short memories, I do not think that MQM on their performance would win Qasimabad from PPP (where PPP won still has done no work), because performance do not matter in Pakistan … else PMLN and PPP would not have won any seats in 2008 election … but they did … because performance is irrelevant in Pakistani politics when election result is concerned.
      Last edited by Sa1eem; Apr 12th, 2013 at 02:38 AM.

    18. #18
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      ^^^ Since I quoted Ab-Tak program on Qasimabad and claimed that no work was done there by PPP MNA and PPP MPA ... and 'one person in the program quoted Latifabad that to him looks like Europe (confirming that MQM perform)' ... I believe it would be appropriate to give reference to that program, else some might say that I am doing propaganda.

      So, here is program ... check Jasmeen interview with a boy in the program wearing white shirt (starting at around 14.15 ... and statement he made at 15.00 onward where he says that 'look at Latifabad that has become like Europe (shows that MQM do perform)'.

      Tonight With Jasmeen - 8th April 2013

      Qasimabad is around 95 percent Sindhi Speaking Sindhis ... so even though they can see and acknowledge that MQM works and do perform in constituencies MQM are responsible (regardless of who lives in the area), still it is unlikely that these people would vote MQM, rather most likely, these peoplewould vote PPP regardless of their performance ... because when it comes to vote, most Pakistanis would obey their Masters on basis of Bradari or whatever.

      As for performance of MQM in Karachi, my family is living in Karachi since before 1947, and I can assure you that no party or government since 1947 worked for betterment of Karachi more than MQM, especially work done by SMK, as the speed he worked to make life better in Karachi even surprised me (that is something, as I seen development works in UK and I can say that extensive work he took and speed he completed works in Karachi was really exceptional).

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