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Dec 20th, 2000, 06:36 AM #1----
how many of you agree with this article
if it is true what we can do avoid this
Pakistan, India likely to go to war in 15 years
From Afzal Khan
WASHINGTON û India and Pakistan are the two nations most likely to go to war during next 15 years that will be deadly because of the lethality of their arms, the CIA has predicted in a report "Global Trends 2015", released on eve of transition of Bush administration. The report, which may be the part of international agencies propaganda just to destabilise the region, further says India and Pakistan will amass larger nuclear and missile arsenals, with India emerging as the unrivaled regional power with a large military-including naval and nuclear capabilities. "In increasingly tumultuous Pakistan government control will by 2015 be limited to the Punjabi heartland and the commercial capital, Karachi, the report predicts," claims the report. "Further domestic decline would benefit Islamic political activists, who may significantly increase their role in national politics" the report predicts while pointing out that nascent democratic reforms will produce little change in the face of opposition from an entrenched political elite and Islamic parties. China, India to be new military powers China and India will be the world's new military powers, based on sheer numbers, growing economic might and technological capabilities. The report offers the most specific insight ever provided an incoming administration about the forces shaping global change. CIA Director George J. Tenet Monday said the "Global Trends 2015" is being released to launch a "strategic dialogue" within the government to deal with both the challenges and the opportunities ahead. According to the report internal problems in South Asia will exacerbate regional instability. In India, more than half a billion people will live in dire poverty, as the gap between rich and poor widens and sparks domestic strife. Gaps between India and Pakistan The widening strategic and economic gaps between India and Pakistan - and the dynamic interplay between their mutual hostility and the instability in Central Asia-will define the South Asia region in 2015. The widening India-Pakistan gap-destabilizing in its own right-will be accompanied by deep political, economic, and social disparities within both states. Pakistan will be more dependent on international financial assistance. Other South Asian states-Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal-will be drawn closer to and more dependent on India and its economy. Afghanistan will likely remain weak and a destabilizing force in the region and the world. Wary of China, India will look increasingly to the West, but its need for oil and desire to balance Arab ties to Pakistan will lead to strengthened ties to Persian Gulf states as well. "Global Trends 2015," the result of an intensive yearlong study involving all branches of the intelligence community as well as many of America's top thinkers, offers sobering predictions about the "drivers," or major forces, that will determine the world of 2015 and beyond. The report was prepared by the National Intelligence Council, the most influential analytic arm of the US intelligence community. The council also produces classified "estimates" on dangers for all branches of the government. Russia's expectations to be 'dramatically reduced' Three of the 20th century's major powers will be increasingly diverted by domestic challenges in the early 21st century, the report says. Russia's expectations as a world leader will be "dramatically reduced," because by 2015 it still won't be able to fully integrate into the global trading system. Even the best-case scenario would leave it with an economy "less than one-fifth the size of the United States," the report concludes. Strapped financially, Moscow will have fewer nuclear weapons and missiles than allowed by treaties. It will instead invest in "selected and secretive" weapons of mass destruction. Japan will have a hard time holding its position as the world's second-largest economy. Tokyo may even need an "external shock" to jolt it into the painful reforms necessary to slow the steady erosion of its leadership role in Asia. And Europe will be largely peaceful and prosperous but more "inward-looking," the study finds. The region will be challenged by an aging population and low birthrates, which will undermine cohesion and economic health and create chronic shortages of skilled workers and professionals. Despite the potential benefits of globalization, three blocs will face setbacks, according to the report. Middle East In the Middle East, increasingly important as a primary energy source, petrodollars will allow the region to resist the forces of reform. With populations due to expand over the next 15 years in most countries-by anywhere from 26 per cent (Algeria) and 39 per cent (Libya) to 56 per cent (Saudi Arabia) - the region's people will be poorer, heavily concentrated in cities that are unable to cope and more disillusioned with their governments. As inequities mount, Islamist movements may come to power. US faces challenges Although the US will remain the preeminent world power, it will face challenges from a growing array of countries, including China, India, Mexico and Brazil, as well as organizations, such as the European Union, trying to check its leadership. The most fundamental shift will be in the world's balance of power, the report predicts. By 2015, China will have dozens of missiles with nuclear warheads targeting the US, along with hundreds of shorter-range ballistic and cruise missiles, some with nuclear warheads, for regional use. It will also have purchased technologies-from the US, Russia, Israel, Europe and Japan-to integrate sea and air capabilities against Taiwan and other regional rivals, the report says. The dangers are not just from traditional hot spots. Among the report's other predictions: more than 3 billion people, roughly half the world's population, living in "water-stressed" regions, from Southern California to northern China. And while new biotechnology will dramatically lengthen average life spans in rich countries, old diseases will shorten life spans in some African nations by as many as 40 years. By 2015, China will have dozens of missiles with nuclear warheads targeting the US, along with hundreds of shorter-range ballistic and cruise missiles, some with nuclear warheads, for regional use. It will also have purchased technologies-from the US., Russia, Israel, Europe and Japan-to integrate sea and air capabilities against Taiwan and other regional rivals, the report says. Latin America In Latin America, the democratic tide that had spread across the continent by 1990 will suffer reversals because of rampant crime, corruption, narcotics trafficking, local insurgencies and failures by governments to address popular demands. Mexico and Brazil will be the strongest voices in the hemisphere, while the threat of instability will be greatest in Bolivia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Paraguay. Africa will be more marginalized than it is today. "Most African states will miss out on the economic growth engendered elsewhere by globalization and by scientific and technological advances," the study says. The negative trends will worsen as Europe severs ties and aid to former colonies. Often filling the void will be religious groups, narco-traffickers, mercenaries, crime syndicates and terrorists seeking refuge. The way conflicts play out will also change, the report says. Most wars will be within countries-and longer, more vicious, harder to end and more likely to recur. Because of globalization, they could threaten the very stability of the new international system. State-sponsored terrorism State-sponsored terrorism is likely to decline. But it will be replaced by "freewheeling" terrorism by groups operating across continents with the help of information technology, the National Intelligence Council predicts. American companies, rather than diplomatic or military facilities, will become targets. The greatest danger, however, is the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Before 2015, the report warns, Iraq, for example, could test an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the US with a nuclear-sized payload. Worldwide, the potential for the use of a missile with chemical or biological weapons will be far greater than during the Cold War. New threats will come from nations with smaller arsenals of weapons that have "far less accuracy, yield, survivability, reliability and range-payload capability" than the Soviet arsenal did, the council says. Some good news Economically, the world will witness the kind of growth rates characteristic of the 1960s and early 1970s. And globalization will ultimately increase political stability-even though the survey predicts that its evolution will be "rocky, marked by chronic financial volatility and a widening economic divide." South Asia Demographic Challenges: Although population growth rates in South Asia will decline, population still will grow by nearly 30 per cent by 2015. India's population alone will grow to more than 1.2 billion. Pakistan's projected growth from 140 million to about 195 million in 2015 will put a major strain on an economy already unable to meet the basic needs of the current population. The per centage of urban dwellers will climb steadily from the current 25-30 per cent of the population to between 40-50 per cent, leading to continued deterioration in the overall quality of urban life. Differential population growth patterns will exacerbate inequalities in wealth. Ties between provincial and central governments throughout the region will be strained. Resource and environmental challenges: Water will remain South Asia's most vital and most contested natural resource. Continued population and economic growth and expansion of irrigated agriculture over the next 15 years will increasingly stress water resources, and pollution of surface and groundwater will be a serious challenge. In India, per capita water availability is likely to drop by 50-75 per cent. Because many of the region's waterways are interstate, water could become a source of renewed friction. Deforestation in India and Nepal will exacerbate pollution, flooding, and land degradation in Bangladesh. India in 2015. Indian democracy will remain strong, albeit more factionalized by the secular-Hindu nationalist debate, growing differentials among regions and the increase in competitive party politics. India's economy, long repressed by the heavy hand of regulation, is likely to achieve sustained growth to the degree reforms are implemented. High-technology companies will be the most dynamic agents and will lead the thriving service sector in four key urban centers-Mumbai, New Delhi, Bangalore, and Chennai. The widening gulf between "have" and "have-not" regions and disagreements over the pace and nature of reforms will be a source of domestic strife. Rapidly growing, poorer northern states will continue to drain resources in subsidies and social welfare benefits. Other Regional States. Threat of major conflict The threat of major conflict between India and Pakistan will overshadow all other regional issues during the next 15 years. Continued turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan will spill over into Kashmir and other areas of the subcontinent, prompting Indian leaders to take more aggressive preemptive and retaliatory actions. India's conventional military advantage over Pakistan will widen as a result of New Delhi's superior economic position. India will also continue to build up its ocean-going navy to dominate the Indian Ocean transit routes used for delivery of Persian Gulf oil to Asia. The decisive shift in conventional military power in India's favour over the coming years potentially will make the region more volatile and unstable. Both India and Pakistan will see weapons of mass destruction as a strategic imperative and will continue to amass nuclear warheads and build a variety of missile delivery systems.
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Dec 20th, 2000, 07:04 AM #2----
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i have never read so many, may could bes and it is possible in my life.
They can't predict what happens in 15 years.
Heck they forgot the factors in India of more struggles for independence, economic crisis, etc etc.
But it is good to see that the Americans still don't know **** about the world as a whole.
CROIRE A L'INCROYABLE
Dec 20th, 2000, 07:11 AM #3----
CM india did not break up in last 53 years
what makes you think it will break up in next 15 years .
on economy gdp has sustained compound
growth rate of 6.5% for last 6 years-fastest growing in wordls democracies. same period
softwere exports rate of 65% and agriculture production by 4% -well ahead of 1.8% of population growth. food grain production tebled in last 30 years.india never had to undertake rescheduling of its external debt
[This message has been edited by rvikz (edited December 20, 2000).]
Dec 20th, 2000, 07:25 AM #4----
These cia types are not as good as they think they are, for frakes sake the only knew about the fall of the Berlin wall from television.
Dec 20th, 2000, 07:46 AM #5----
In his discussions with Bush, Clinton spoke of the tremendous success of the Indian American and Pakistani American communities and their contributions to American society, adding that if this type of success could be translated into resolving some of South Asia's problems, it would do much to alleviate the current prevailing tensions between the two countries.
Dec 20th, 2000, 09:57 AM #6----
looks like we are slowly moving towards
some sort of peace process.
following news is positive development
Pakistan pulls back troops from LoC
(Updated at 1825 PST)
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has announced a partial withdrawal of its troops from the tense Line of Control (LoC) in divided Kashmir following India's extension of its ceasefire with Mujahideen. "Pakistan has unilaterally taken another bold initiative to withdraw part of its forces deployed along the Line of Control (the unofficial border)," a report on the PTV said Wednesday.
"The move back has already commenced and the troops have started moving towards cantonments (barracks). "Necessary safeguards have been taken against any possible Indian misadventure across the Line of Control and to ensure protection of the local population," the report said.
Dec 21st, 2000, 03:20 AM #7----
well i think there is some substance to the article and i have a feeling that the war is much more early than 15 years i think there wil be war very soon may be in a a few years from now and it will be india which will be the aggressive party here and it will be under the govt of vajpayee
india will start the war this time and it will be much better prepared and pakistanis will be caught napping